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News&Views 17:Dec 7

 
Bay2a
  LAGUNA BEACH                                DECEMBER 7, 2010                                      VOLUME XVII

 News & Views
 Debt Buyers & Sellers Resource
 

Editor's Message

 

In this edition, Gary leads off with his 3rd quarter summary of the Public Debt Buyers in "The Public Companies - 3rd Quarter 2010", which takes a look at the data and provides some perspective to all the "things are improving" hype that we hear lately.  This is followed by the second installment of his analysis of the government budget in "The Federal Budget: Taxes, Debt and the GDP-Part 2".  Taken together, this piece is a wake up call to everyone that we should not be sitting on the sidelines letting business carry on as usual in this country. And, of course, We also include the "Monthly Charge-offs"

 

In addition, we have take a look at the SEC, and questioned whether  it dropped the ball at critical times in the prelude to our Economic Crisis in "The SEC, Asleep at the Switch".  And, as always, we have some great Yellow Box links, as well as a new "MACRO" segment, this month featuring several excellent links on Quantitative Easing. 

 
The Public Companies - 3rd Quarter 2010 
By Gary Baker
 

Every quarter we assemble the data from the company reports filed with the SEC for the publicly traded debt buyers and compare the results to previous quarters. NCO which is not a public company also reports on some areas of their business, so those results are included as well. This past quarter, ASTA Funding has still not reported quarterly results as of the date of this newsletter, and only the stock price and market capitalization numbers are currently available.  

 

The third quarter reflects an increase of gross collections for Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA), while there has been a flattening out of gross collections for Encore Capital (ECPG), Asset Acceptance (AACC) and First City (FCFC). NCO Group's gross collections declined for the quarter from $386.2 million to $370.5 million.

 

Vol 17-1

 

Profits increased for Encore Capital, Asset Acceptance and First City for the quarter and declined slightly for Portfolio Recovery Associates. NCO Group experienced another quarterly loss which was the largest loss reported in the past 5 quarters.

 

17-2

 

Portfolios purchased by PRAA, ECPG and AACC declined for the third quarter with combined purchases for the three companies totaling $195.7 million for the quarter, compared to $218.7 million in the 2nd quarter. (FCFC buys different debt than the other companies)

 

17-3

 

Combined, the top three debt buyers below purchased over $5.5 billion face value, in charged off credit card accounts this past quarter, compared to $5.3 billion in the 2nd quarter. In the past 4 quarters these three companies have acquired over $20 billion in face value from the major card issuers.

 

17-4

 

Portfolio pricing continues to surprise us. We hear so much about the increasing prices and yet both portfolio Recovery Associates and Encore Capital paid less for portfolios in the 3rd quarter than they did in the 2nd quarter, according to their public filings. All three publicly traded Debt Buyers are paying less than 5¢ for their credit card portfolios.

17-5

Impairment charges remained steady for the Debt Buyers, with the exception of NCO which is showing on the charts for the first time this quarter. The allowance for uncollectable accounts rose from $1.6 million in the 2nd quarter for NCO, to $7.1 million in the 3rd quarter.

 

17-6

 

Stock prices have almost tripled for Portfolio Recovery Associates since March of 2009.

 

17-7

 

THE MACRO 

 

QE2: Is it only making the rich, richer?

Last month we included a few links about our monetary system, which were appropriate companion pieces to some of the articles on the larger focus on our economy.  The macro news on the continuing financial crisis in November was the Fed's decision to increase the money supply (QE2). The move triggered a heavy dose of criticism and we thought we would share a few of the best articles we saw.

     - Quantitative Easement Explained 

     - Why QE Won't Save the US Economy

     - Quantitative Easing for Dummies: How the Fed Has All of Us Fooled.

     - QE2 The Last Gasp of a Monetary System

The Federal Budget: Taxes, Debt and the GDP-Part 2 
By Gary Baker
 

This piece is a continuation of last month's analysis of the Federal Budget.

 

Gross Domestic Product 

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of a country's overall economic output. It is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year). GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

 

Note: "Gross" means that GDP measures total production. Production can be used for immediate consumption, for investment in new fixed assets or inventories, or for replacing depreciated fixed assets. "Domestic" means that GDP measures production that takes place within the country's borders. The exports-minus-imports term is necessary in order to null out expenditures on things not produced in the country (imports) and add in things produced but not sold in the country (exports).

 

Components of U.S. GDP

GDP (Y) is a sum of Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G) and Net Exports (X - M).

Y = C + I + G + (X − M)

 

The following is a description of each GDP component:

·        C (consumption) is normally the largest GDP component in the economy, consisting of private house expenditures. These personal expenditures fall under one of the following categories: durable goods, non-durable goods, and services. Examples include food, rent, jewelry, gasoline, and medical expenses but do not include the purchase of new housing.

 

·        I (investment) includes business investment in equipment for example and does not include exchanges of existing assets. Examples include construction of a new mine, purchase of software, or purchase of machinery and equipment for a factory. Spending by households (not government) on new houses is also included in Investment. In contrast to its colloquial meaning, 'Investment' in GDP does not mean purchases of financial products. Buying financial products is classed as 'saving', as opposed to investment. This avoids double-counting: if one buys shares in a company, and the company uses the money received to buy plant, equipment, etc., the amount will be counted toward GDP when the company spends the money on those things. Buying bonds or stocks is a swapping of deeds, a transfer of claims on future production, not directly an expenditure on products.

 

·        G (government spending) is the sum of government expenditures on final goods and services. It includes salaries of public servants, purchase of weapons for the military, and any investment expenditure by a government. It does not include any transfer payments, such as social security or unemployment benefits.

 

·        X (exports) represents gross exports. GDP captures the amount a country produces, including goods and services produced for other nations' consumption, therefore exports are added.

 

·        M (imports) represents gross imports. Imports are subtracted since imported goods will be included in the terms G, I, or C, and must be deducted to avoid counting foreign supply as domestic.

 

Current GDP Growth

 

The following chart was prepared by the St. Louis Fed and reflects the growth and contraction of the gross Domestic Product from 2007 through the 3rd quarter of 2010. There was a small bounce in the GDP in the past quarter and currently we are experiencing a 2.52% growth in GDP on an annualized basis. This is far short of the 6% growth that is needed by the government estimates to keep abreast of the current spending commitments.

17-10

 The following graph shows the components of the GDP and the comparison by quarter since the 4th quarter of 2008. Note that consumption has increased in the most recent quarter, while exports have declined and inventories have risen. Government spending is about the same as the previous quarter and investment has been drastically reduced in the 3rd quarter.

17-11

  

Other Economic Trends

 

Other economic trends that are tracked by the St. Louis Fed include various price indexes, interest rates, the S & P 500, employment cost index, Producer Price Index, oil and natural gas prices, labor costs, unemployment rates, payrolls, household employment, disposable income, real consumption, investment and savings rates, housing starts, imports and exports, along with a series of economic projections. We have selected a few of the charts for inclusion here, the others can be located in a December 2010 report by the Stl. Louis Fed.

 

The first chart is the Standard and Poor's 500 index which covers the period from 1985 through 2010. The recession is shown on the chart as gray areas. Note the dramatic recovery from early 2009 through the start of 2010, and how the number has fallen the rest of the year, almost back to zero.

 

17-12

The consumer price index has been on a decline throughout 2010.

 

17-13 

Unemployment has held above 9% since the recession "officially" ended 18 months ago. The employed work force is now about 58% of the population, the lowest in over 25 years. The loss of jobs and the length of time people have remained unemployed have both had a disastrous impact on the families of these workers, as well as causing a significant reduction in tax revenue needed to support the spending of the government.

  

17-14

The following chart displays the household debt outstanding and debt service payments as a percent change from a year ago. Household debt has dropped almost 15% since 2006 while debt service payments have declined about 2% for the same period.

 

17-15

 

The personal savings rate has been rising since the middle of 2007 where a 2% savings rate was documented. The current savings rate is almost 6%. More savings equals less spending and fewer new jobs being created.

 

 17-16

Summary and Conclusion

 

From our analysis of the Federal Budget (Parts 1 and 2), we can conclude that the United States is at a critical juncture in its history and the picture looks bleak. It should be clear that continued high unemployment drains government resources and services, has a tremendous impact on the family, reduces spending in the overall economy, and reduces tax revenues. In addtion, the loss of a job in prolonged situations often means the loss of a home, which has repercussions on the banks, as well as the general housing market. Last week a study was released that reflected that foreclosures represented over 25% of the real estate being sold, and that foreclosed homes were selling for roughly 32% below the value of comparable homes in the area. This perpetuates a cycle of downward pressure on home prices, which puts more and more mortgages underwater, which leads to more foreclosures

 

As the economic recovery stalls, and growth declines again in the GDP, tax revenues will also decline. To make up the difference between revenues and expenditures the government is forced to make difficult choices from three basic alternatives - raising taxes, reducing expenditures, or borrowing more money to bridge the gap between spending and revenue. Of course the government can also employ any combination of the 3, but without sparking meaningful growth in the economy  we will just continure to fall behind.

 

Growing the GDP is vital to recovery! It's time to recognize that half measures will not cut it. Simply curing our extravagant mentality will not be nearly enough to stem the tide of a sad economic future for our children. Our hope lies in recognizing that we must make a huge paradigm shift in this country, and prepare ourselves to make great changes. For example, if we could redirect our focus on and our considerable energy towards expanding the manufacturing of products within our borders for our own consumption and for export, we could create many new jobs and reduce our imports. We have gone from making almost everything in America, to making very little, which has impacted our job diversity, made us reliant on foreign governments, and significantly reduced our competiveness in the world.

 

We need to get back to basics and rebuild our country from the ground up, in a cost effective and environmentally conscious manner. It is important to fund infrastructure improvements like roads and bridges, electrical transmission lines, water and sewer system overhauls, new schools and universities, alternative and conventional energy sources, as well as establish rewards and incentives for our youth to train in engineering and the sciences.

 

In addition, we need to return to the core values that built this great country, abiding by and defending our Constitution, and abandoning "political correctness for truth and honesty.  This begins by holding our elected representatives to a higher set of standards. Our higher standards will require a new set of heroes to replace the shallow or corrupt figures we have admired and allowed our children to adore. It's time to reject our heroes on Wall Street who made vast fortunes at our expense and together with the politicians have run this great country into the ground. The media has hastened our moral decay by glorifying many of the wrong role models for our children from sports figures to pretty Hollywood faces.  Better role models would be our scientists, engineers, technicians and teachers, who lead the way in the development of new methods and implement brilliant ideas. 

 

The mission needs to be defined with a clear sense of purpose.  With the right leadership, people will welcome the challenge and commit themselves to the task. Changes will include sacrifice, particularly the letting go of entitlements. We need to have the will to succeed and be united in our purpose.  We need to look beyond platitudes and elect leaders who are willing to stand up against the corrupt establishment and make real changes.  We need to get involved in our communities and teach our children that every member of society must contribute - no free rides.  Americans are the most hardworking people anywhere. With character and ingenuity, we built a great nation. We must rise up and refuse to allow narcissism and decadence to carry her into the pages of history's failures.

AS GOES UNEMPLOYMENT, SO GO CHARGE-OFFS 

 

This is why we devote so much time and energy to the subject. On "The other side of the White House White Board", the current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, Austan Goolsbee, provides a rosy summary of what the economic stimulus has done for job growth, while Keith Hennessey, the former economic advisor to George Bush, challenges his analysis.  Don't miss this eye opening, 14 minute video.

 

The Credit Card Charge-offs 
By Gary Baker
    

October 2010

Charge-offs continued to decline for Capital One, American Express, Chase and Discover, while both Citigroup and Bank of America bounced up to over 10% during the month of October. Unemployment had held steady at 9.6% for August, September and October. The November numbers just issued, reflect an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.8%. The U-6 unemployment rate is still at 17% compared to 15% in February 2009 and 10.9% in August 2008.

 

17-8

COJONES OF THE MONTH

William Black calls on FDIC to seize Bank of America!

The SEC Asleep at the Switch?
By Jill Benshoof

  

There has been no shortage of articles about the economic crisis, and as it has impacted the Debt Industry so significantly, we have been throwing our 2 cents (more like 2 basis points) into the fray for over a year now.  It's nice to have a venue to do so, and hopefully we have behaved in a responsible manner. Sadly, we still don't see a clear solution to our current economic problems (unemployment!) on the horizon, much less any clear and decisive leadership in dealing with the aftershocks that haven't hit us yet (National Debt!!!). What is clear is that there has been massive fraud perpetrated on the American public and it doesn't appear that much is being done about it. 

 

The Warning Signs

 

The fraud was as egregious as it was massive.  No one disputes that.  In fact, there were a plethora of red flags and loudly resounding alarms by a multitude of experts, about the housing bubble before it burst.  It was so apparent that in April 2001 and 2002 the Bush Administration warned repeatedly about the looming problem of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and in 2003 it upgraded the problem as a severe "systemic risk" and tried to pass legislation to regulate the 2 giants.  That legislation was blocked by Democrats, with Barney Frank and Chuck Schumer insisting loudly that the institutions were sound. Later, in 2006, Senator McCain gave a speech on senate floor in an attempt to revive the legislation for regulation, but Republicans couldn't rally enough support.

 

As early as 2002 Warren Buffet called over-the-counter derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction" and later referred to them as "phony instruments". The fraud perpetuated the notion that these derivatives were instruments too complex for most of us to understand, when, in fact, they were actually nothing more than "huge, illegal bets". In October of 2009 Frontline aired an expose about the intense behind the scenes attempts by Brooksley Born, Chairperson of the Commodity Futures Market from 1996 to 1999, to get derivatives regulated.  Born was not just ignored, she was muzzled by the financial power brokers of that time, former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, in concert with former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and former Assistant Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

 

Betrayal and Accountability

 

To say that the loosening of lending standards and leverage requirements that led to the crisis was a failure by many people at many levels, is a serious understatement.  From the  corporate greed of Banks, Insurance Companies and Wall Street, to the FDIC, the Fed, and Congress, it was a systematic breech of the public trust by the very people we rely on to set economic policy, to manage and to protect the financial welfare of the country. The deep injustice of the crisis, itself, is exacerbated by the fact that none of the parties that created the problem have been held accountable.  Since the peak of the crisis in late 2008, self interests have continued to be the driving force behind decisions during the aftermath of the crisis with the perpetrators of the fraud rewarded at public expense. There is an incestuous relationship, between the Banks and the Fed, and between Wall Street and Congress, wherein no one is interested in interrupting the cozy balance of power to do the right thing either for the tax payers, or for the future of the country. The denial continues even now; no one has been fired, no one has apologized and no one will step up to the plate and make the tough decisions that will stabilize our economy and get us back on track in the future.

 

Who do we blame? 

 

One would certainly think that there would be a growing sense of responsibility to the American people as you progress further up the line.  To be sure, among those at the top are the Fed and the FDIC, neither of which was more than tangentially responsible for the oversight of the root failures that led up to the crisis, and neither of which is charged with Consumer Protection in the failure areas.  The Fed directs monetary policy and is charged with maintaining the stability of our financial system. Its structure is comprised of numerous private banking institutions which help set bank regulation policy (for themselves). They are not subject to executive or legislative oversight by the government and, in effect, have no accountability to the American people. While the FDIC has some consumer protection functions with regard to the soundness of Banks and insuring deposits, its primary role is to step in after a banking crisis and manage the aftermath. 

 

The agency that is more directly linked to Consumer Protection in the areas of failure is the SEC, yet surprisingly, little blame has fallen on the SEC. Since its primary purpose is to regulate the stock market, prevent corporate abuses and protect the public from fraud, it would seem to us that there were many stages along the line that the SEC dropped the ball.  Where was the SEC as mortgages were packaged as financial instruments and sold on the stock market?  Where was the SEC when the derivatives evolved into instruments that incentivized irrational risks taking?  Where was the SEC when companies like Lehman Brothers engaged in questionable practices that cheated borrowers, and Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch all contributed in various ways to the creation of the subprime megascam by repackaging and selling bad loans that should have been written down?  During the S&L crisis, which was hardly a blip on the long term charts, there were 1100 criminal indictments. And so far, in this crisis, the criminals have been rewarded beyond their wildest dreams while the recovery leaves most of us behind.

 

In September 2008 John McCain called for the firing of Christopher Cox, SEC Chairman, for allowing "mismanagement and greed to become the operating standard", but Fed officials and Paulson protected his back.  Former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt also defended Cox, blaming Congress for failing to modernize the regulatory system when it deregulated the financial services industry in the 1990s.  In May 2010 Janet Tavakoli, author and President of Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc., spoke out and charged the SEC with incompetency during the escalation of the crisis by ignoring criminal behavior, specifically that of Goldman Sachs. She also accused the government of whitewashing the fraud and scams, claiming that Congress has been bought off by Wall Street. 

 

Incest

 

In addition, Tavakoli accused Goldman Sachs directly of accounting fraud and called for criminal indictments for fraudulent lending on a massive scale.  While the SEC had indeed filed charges in April against Goldman for mortgage fraud, with the Obama Administration heavily laden with Goldmanites (as was the previous Administration), and both parties recipients of substantial campaign donations, Tavakoli didn't expect the punishment to amount to much more than a traffic ticket.  In July a settlement was reached with Goldman paying $550 million for "negligence", not fraud, (the equivalent of 14 days of earnings). The largest SEC settlement ever, the SEC touted it as a victory, while Goldman stock immediately soared. With a market cap of $83 billion, and considering all the money they made off the "mistake", it appears that Tavakoli was correct.  It is sickeningly reminiscent of Hank Paulson granting Goldman 100 cents on the dollar for worthless securities that they had already hedged, when the going rate was 10 cents.

 

Don't let them Walk

 

Americans are trusting people who believe in happy endings.  As an optimist, I have to believe that the truth will come out, the crooks will be punished and our economy will recover fully enough for the baby boomer legacy to be one worthy of leaving our children and grand children.

 

But, one still has to ask, is Goldman Sachs the only source for government advisors? With a trend toward making Wall Street insiders government policy makers, aren't we naively running the risk of giving the power to people with mixed loyalties? And if at critical times they are all busy protecting each other, how can you ever have accountability?  

 

Other questions we should be asking ourselves are who devised the derivative schemes in the first place and shouldn't those that profited the most from dirty dealings pay restitution?  Why are we still listening to the Alan Greenspans, who got it wrong and then defended the status quo until the end?  And why are representatives who helped to create the housing debacle in the first place, then later obstructed corrective legislation, all the time insisting the entities were sound, still being reelected? Well intentioned or not, the consequences were disastrous and these same people are at the helm making bad decisions. Are we losing sight of how it happened, already?  Doesn't this send the message that shading dealings are acceptable and tax payer money is there for the taking?  If we can't rely on the SEC, and other consumer protection agencies, to put the American people first, who can we rely on? Unless you punish the culprits, what's to prevent it from happening all over again?

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The Loan Buyers Group was formed to allow smaller Debt Buyers and Collection Agencies to work together to purchase National files of charged-off debt.  The group also partners with larger Debt Buyers for larger portfolio acquisitions.  For information on how what we do and how to join, visit our new Website at www.loanbuyersgroup.com.   Join us on Linked-In .com/Search Groups/"Loan Buyers Group: National Debt Buyers".
 
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