Debt Buyers Resource
-----
Group Debt Buying, Data & Asset Management, Education and Industry News and Publications

Your Subtitle text

News&Views 19:Apr 13

 
Bay2a

LAGUNA BEACH   .   APRIL 13, 2011   .   VOL XIX

 News & Views
 Debt Buyers & Sellers Resource
 

Editor's Message

Spring is here and we have seen our seasonal rally in the Collection Industry kick in with gusto.  Economic indicators have up-ticked and optimism abounds.  Laguna Beach has already seen several days of great beach weather, so all is good in the world, right? 

                      

Well it depends on your perspective.  For a country and world still reeling from an economic meltdown, little snippets of good news provide a welcome relief from the turmoil in Washington and in other parts of the world. We continue to pray for the Japanese people, as they mark the one month anniversary of the Megaquake that triggered a triple whammy of unprecedented scale in their country.  

 

This month Gary provides an overview of the last 18 months of News & Views in "A Retrospective".  He has also done our quarterly update on the Public Debt Buyers in "Quarterly Report", and includes his monthly look at "Credit Card Charge-offs". We also share a perspective on what has happened with interest rates  in "Interest: At What Point Is It Excessive?" 

A Retrospective 

By Gary Baker

 

This marks the 19th issue of News and Views, and over the past 18 months we have written volumes about the debt buying business. All of our previous issues are available on our Crescent Bay Financial website and include many articles specifically for debt buyers as well as in depth discussions of unemployment, collection practices, the National debt and consumer protection. We have had articles reprinted in other publications and have been invited to speak on debt buying at an international conference. We often wonder if we will run out of material or if there is more that we can find to talk about that would be new and interesting for our readers, but, as you can see with this volume of information published, we always do find something new as this business is constantly changing.

 

In February, we were at the DBA Conference in Las Vegas, and found that there was so little time to meet and talk with the attendees. There was a nice reception Tuesday night and then on Wednesday there was a very full day of meetings both in the hallways and in the parking lot, which appears to be the way a good deal of business is conducted at the conference. Thursday the exhibit hall was almost empty and we left with the feeling that we could have accomplished so much more with more time at the event.

 

We are following closely the new ACA initiative to modernize the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act with regard to contacting debtors with technology that was not even thought of when the act was first adopted in 1978, as well as our constant battle to resolve ethical breaches. We also really like the proposal of requiring issuers to maintain account information for 7 years, and that debt collectors and debt purchasers have access to the data to ensure they have proper information to fairly address consumers' claims and provide verification of debts.

 

The first quarter of 2011 appears to be very solid for many debt buyers, perhaps the best quarter in many years. It appears to us that more than moral conscience, the need to repair credit is driving many consumers to settle their accounts at this time. Delinquency rates are at their lowest rates in years and while there may not yet be a flood gate of credit opening at the banks, there is more money available to borrow, and shining up one's credit is one of the requirements. Tax season has also provided a big boost for overall collections this quarter, and strong collection returns are projected for the next few months as well. We are also seeing a shift away from payment plans and more negotiated settlements at this time.

 

Bankruptcy filings continue to be very high, especially in the first year after charge-off. Like most debt buyers, we do not hang onto our bankrupt paper. But even jettisoning these accounts does not stem what seems like an endless tide of paperwork from the courts, which has to be sorted and forwarded on to the buyers. We are seeing more debt settlement companies and that generally is not a bad thing as consumers recognize that bank bail outs will likely not trickle down, and that they need to get proactive in resolving their own debts.

 

We write this newsletter to share information about the debt buying business. We offer the newsletter free to our subscribers and we always appreciate any comments on our articles.  We have a unique format with original content and we do not lend our venue to advertisers.

We are actively engaged in purchased charged-off credit cards through the Loan Buyers Group, which we formed a year and a half ago as a way for smaller debt buyers to work together to purchase national files collectively. We manage the collections in house, which has given us better control over our collection process. We also have a separate division for collection agencies and collection attorneys who want to enjoy the buying power of buying as a group and have their own internal collections. We are not brokers and when we do sell accounts we typically list them with a national brokerage firm. More information about the Loan Buyers Group can be found on our website.
Quarterly Report 
By Gary Baker

Portfolio Recovery Associates has enjoyed a substantial increase in their stock price over the past 2 years with about a 300% gain. Encore Capital was trading at $4.53 per share 24 months ago and the price quoted on April 4, 2011 was $25.09 a 550% gain. Asset Acceptance is trading within one penny of the March 9, 2009 prices at $5.30 per share and ASTA Funding, which rounds out the list of major public debt buyers, has enjoyed a 340% improvement in their stock price for the same 24 month period. As witnessed by three of the four public debt buyers, the purchase and collection of charged-off consumer debt is becoming profitable again, or least profitable for the buyers of the company stock near the bottom of the current economic slump.

 19 Stock Price 

 The following chart shows the same time period with the major market indices plotted. The SPY also known as the Spiders is the tracking stock for the S & P 500, the DIA is the tracking stock for the Dow Jones and is known as the Diamonds, and the QQQ is the tracking stock for the NASDAQ which is referred to as just the QQQ's. The XLF is the Exchange Traded Fund that represents the Financial Services Sector of the broader market.

 

All the major market indices have experienced practically a doubling in price since the March 2009 low, and the stock prices of most of the public debt buyers have outperformed the broader market as stated earlier. However, the stock price is only one indicator of the health of the publicly held debt buyers.

 

 19 Stock Price 2

 

Since these larger debt buyers establish the price they are willing to pay for debt and control so much of the volume of collections, their health is probably the best barometer that we have to determine how the debt buying sector is recovering after the great financial meltdown. Since we have public information on many aspects of the business operations of these debt buyers, unlike most other companies in this industry, we can use some of their data to create a picture of the broader industry.

 

The following chart reflects Market Capitalization for the four largest public debt buyers. We have dropped FCFC or First City from the following charts as they really are not representative of the typical public debt buyer and they are fairly small. In addition, FCFC does not buy what we would call typical charged-off consumer debt which includes credit cards, medical, telecom, student loans etc. Market capitalization is simply the current price of the stock times the number of shares outstanding, and reflects an imaginary value of the company if every share were sold of all outstanding stock at the current market price. It also is useful number used to establish a snapshot value of the company in the event of a merger or acquisition.

 

19 Markt Cap
 

Quarterly profitability has declined the past two quarters for PRA while a gradual improvement has been seen at Encore Capital. Asset Acceptance reported a loss in the last quarter and ASTA Funding was in the black again. NCO continues to surprise with four consecutively worsening quarters and the most recent report reflecting a loss of over $80.0 million. How does a company maintain the status of the number one collection agency in the world and still absorb those kind of losses? The negative numbers in the chart below have been compressed to emphasize the positive quarterly numbers of the majority of the public debt buyers.

 

19 Prof Loss

 

Gross collections have remained flat or have slightly declined for three of the big public debt buyers, with Asset Acceptance being the only firm reporting significantly stronger collections in the most recent quarter.

 

19 Gross Coll

 

The face value of portfolios purchased increased for Encore Capital, while remaining basically unchanged for Portfolio Recovery Associates and ASTA Funding. Asset Acceptance followed their trend of the previous quarter and purchased less face value of debt.

 

19 Port Purch

Encore Capital significantly increased purchases in the 4th quarter as measured by dollars invested in new debt.

 

19 Port Purch2

 

Using the face value amount purchased and amount of investment for new debt we can determine the average purchase price for the purchased portfolios. While the price paid for new debt acquisition general declined through the 3rd quarter of 2010, we see that both PRA and Encore are paying slightly more in the 4th quarter, and Asset Acceptance is paying considerably more for new portfolios. ASTA Funding has moved away from buying credit card debt in the most recent quarter and has begun purchasing some performing medical debt at about 38% of face value.

 

19 Av Purch Pr

 

The article was prepared in early April of 2011 and the public companies are just completing their first quarter of the year. We will not have any reporting on the results for another 2 months or so, but the indication is that debt prices have been climbing over the past several months. Whether they continue to rise or not will be driven by many market factors including the ability of the buyers to collect on these accounts.

 

Collections for the first quarter appear by all indications to be solidly improving for most debt buyers, both public and private. And the first quarter is always the best month of the year due to tax season. What we are witnessing in our own collections is a shift in attitude with the customers on how they view their debt and why they are paying. There generally appears to be less of an incentive to pay obligations because of a moral obligation to the debt. A great percentage of those who are now paying on their charged-off accounts are because of a need to clear up their credit so that the customer can get some type of financing to purchase other goods or services. With the banks new underwriting requirements, most consumers will have a very difficult time obtaining any type of credit with unresolved charged-off accounts still being reflected on their credit reports.

More on the FED
Ron Paul offers a preliminary glance at where Fed dollars went at the height of the crisis. 
Credit Card Charge-offs Continue to Fall 
By Gary Baker

 

The credit card charge-off rates have been generally been falling over the past year for all of the major issuers. While the unemployment rate and credit card charge-off rates are generally in step with each other historically, only Bank of America is currently in step with the broadly reported U-3 jobless rate. The current rate for American Express is the lowest of all issuers at 3.80% and falls off the bottom of the chart. The charge-off rates for the credit card industry peaked in August 2009 at 11.49% and the most current industry wide charge-off rate is 5.91% which is about a 50% improvement. American Express has experienced about a 64% improvement while Bank of America has seen a 40% improvement and Citibank about 35%.

 

19 Charge-offs

 

Unemployment is expected to remain high, which may mean near the current levels, and the historic relationship between credit card charge-offs and unemployment may be broken. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has modified the way it is taking their survey which may impact the U-6 unemployment rate numbers. The U-6 is often considered the true rate of unemployment and is currently 15.7% while the more broadly reported U-3 number is 8.8%. The new method will start to include people in the U-6 who have been out of work between two to five years which the BLS believes is being under reported.

Inside Job
Check out the trailer and interview by Charlie Rose of director Charles Ferguson on his new film on the systemic corruption in the US by the Financial Services Industry.
Interest: At What Point Is It Excessive? 
By Jill Benshoof 

 

The Practice of charging interest for the lending of money is an accepted and integral part of our modern, global, credit-based financial system. After all, the lender takes considerable risk in getting paid back.  In fact, the entire Collection Industry is the result of the failure of so many for whatever reason, to repay their loans. So, it seems logical and fair for the lender to have some kind of protection and for there to be incentive to the borrower to honor their contractual obligations.  While the amount of interest is usually linked to the risk factor, it seems that the line between "interest" and "usury" has become blurred, almost to the point of public indifference. The question of morality comes into play when interest becomes excessive, yet what that is exactly, is far from clear. In the Credit Card Industry, interest rates of up to 40% are quite common place. It is interesting to note however, that at various times throughout history, and in various cultures, the practice of charging any interest at all has been considered an evil one, virtually synonymous with usury.

 

Historical Perspective

From the earliest times of recorded lending, interest charged on loans has been controversial.  Ancient Indian manuscripts reveal contempt for "usurers" and Ancient Greek philosophers such as Plato, Aristotle, and Cicero were all extremely critical of the practice.  The most vocal critics over the centuries have come from the religious communities. The Old Testament and the New Testament are replete with stories reflecting scorn over the "money changers", the Hebrew word for interest; Neshekh, quite literally meaning "a bite". In Luke 6:35 Jesus says "Lend hoping for nothing in return". Although the Romans employed a sliding scale of interest for different situations, for a period of time interest was outlawed entirely in the Roman Republic. In the Middle Ages, the Roman Catholic Church championed the cause against usury, holding it to be a grave sin, Canon Law representing it as "malum in se", or "an evil in itself".  Interestingly, although Luther and Calvin spoke out against the "sinful" act, it was during the Protestant Reformation movement on the tide of heavy commercialization that the practice shifted from the arena of public condemnation to that of private conscience.  Since that time a distinction has been made between usury and patterns of trade, although there has never emerged a consensus as to where the boundary between the two lies. 

 

Ethical Concerns

To this day, the orthodox branches of Judaism and Islam out rightly ban the practice of charging interest. This is ironic since through history the Jews have been strongly associated with Goldsmiths or money-lenders which were often one and the same.  Religious objections to charging interest generally revolved around 2 things.  Firstly, from an integrity standpoint, that it is a source of unearned income which essentially undermines the value of honest, hard work and becomes a means to an end in itself. And secondly, that it usually exploits the poor and the vulnerable the most, who generally borrow for survival and not for the purchase of luxury goods. In cases where payments are made against interest first, often never touching the principle, it virtually permanently enslaves the debtor.  The ultimate result is that the poor have to work themselves to the bone so that the rich can retire and live comfortably off their interest. College students who apply for credit cards are a good example of this, Issuers entrapping young, inexperienced adults who are generally unaware of the ramifications of the burden they take on. The assumption has always been that a college education leads to a better paying job and while historically this may have been true, even in the best of times, this has left many young adults buried in debt for years. Now, however, the dynamic has changed. Since a college education doesn't even guarantee a job any more, the cost of a college education has risen far beyond its value, presenting a bleak scenario for students who are currently borrowing money to complete their degree. 

 

On the larger scale, Third World countries find themselves in a similar circumstance, having to spend precious capital on interest rather than on infrastructure that would improve the standard of living for their populations.

 

Islam has been one of the most outspoken critics of the practice of usury and they have taken the lead in developing a banking system that does not lend money usuriously. Of course, the penalties for not repaying debt, are likely quite severe, so perhaps the high interest incentive is perhaps moot.

 

Credit Cards and the Question of Usury

In the US, each State has its own set of rules with regard to the "usury limits" and the variation is considerable. The basic legal rate of interest in New Mexico is 15%, whereas in Delaware, Wisconsin and Michigan it's only 5%.  At the same time, the Federal Government has set parameters for "National" banks tying interest rates to the Fed prime interest rate and allowing them to ignore State usury limits entirely. Banks have different interest rates for different kinds of loans, credit cards loans being higher that auto or mortgage, for example. 

 

The structure of Credit Card debt and other forms of unsecured lending is uniquely hazardous.  Where secured loans offer reasonable rates in a set repayment time frame, unsecured loans have no repayment plan with much higher interest.  While most people agree that there is a point at which interest becomes outrageous, there is no consensus as to what that is. Since most States no longer have caps on Credit Card interest rates, and since most Issuers are located in states without usury laws (South Dakota, Delaware, Nevada), Issuers have been able to dodge the issue of usury. In 1978 the Supreme Court, in "Marquette vs. First Omaha Service Corp" gave National banks the ability to charge their highest rates to people living across state lines and thus ignore individual State usury laws.  This opened the door to the banks' ability to essentially charge anything they want as long as it is disclosed to the borrower. In the past few decades States have been complicit in the deregulation movement, loosening their own usury lawsto maintain their share of the credit card business. 

 

While there were some token bones thrown to consumers to provide better transparency, Congress missed a perfect opportunity with the Credit Card Act of 2009 to curb usurious lending.  While the intent of the law is to protect consumers from legal trickery, fearful that it might hamper the flow of credit, the new law does nothing to establish a federal usury standard for credit cards. There are, in fact, many more protections for the lenders, and it appears that as far as interest goes, we haven't come close to seeing the worst yet.  Last Fall, a First Premier Bank marketer mailed test (9) offers of credit cards featuring 79.9% with 59.9% annual interest on cards with a $300 limit to people with bad credit. Apparently the response of takers at 2% was higher than their normal response of 1% - 1.2%. In March, First Premier dropped the 59.9% APR down to 49.9%.  In addition to increasing interest, many Issuers are now charging substantial annual fees for the privilege of having a credit card. Cash Calls are at 97% and Payday Loans can be as high as 300%.

 

Issuers are not the only ones who charge interest to the Credit Card Debtor.  In structuring a settlement with a Debtor, the Issuer's interest may or may not be included in the settlement, but unless the settlement is a flat fee payment, new interest by the Collector is often part of the equation.  The reason is that the cost of carrying the debt over time can have a cost associated with it to the Debt owner that purchased the accounts from the Issuer or from another Debt Buyer.  Short statues of limitation only add to the risk to the Debt Buyer.

 

Inherent Economic Instability

At the macro scale of lending and borrowing, there is much written about how much of the Casino economics that caused the recent recession can be laid at the feet of our interest-base banking system.  The leveraging issue aside, as US interest rates increased to offset the effects of house price inflation, a loan default chain reaction occurred.  One of the main objections to the interest-based economy by many economists is the repeating "boom and bust" cycles that it creates which makes it inherently instable.  Some suggest that compounding interest may actually cause inflation. 

 

Even strong capitalists, such as Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes, were acutely aware of the dangers of usury and in favor of controlling interest, yet it is clearly a slippery slope. Senator Ron Paul, who favors market driven interest rates, has taken up the banner for many modern critics of Federal Reserve interest manipulation and the banking infrastructure that protects it. He believes that it is completely wrong for commercial banks to hold a monopoly on the money supply and on the credit creation process.  The idea that banks can charge interest (including to government) on money which they have created out of nothing, is immoral and fraudulent.

 

The current financial system is a monopolistic structure that bypasses any real form of competition. The best interest rates go to those who need it the least for either the staking of more wealth or the purchase of luxury goods. It is, in effect, a stacked deck of wealth redistribution wherein the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.  If you argue that money is an essential government sanctioned product of sorts, and that all people should therefore have equal access, then the system might even be considered unconstitutional. The relentlessness dynamic of compound interest, often imposed in the face of adversity, sets up a cruel plot that is very different from equity-based returns on investment.  There is much we can learn from past cultures and rethinking the wisdom of our systems and reassessing our values.

INTERESTED IN READING OUR PAST ARTICLES?
 
You can now find all our past articles online on our website
 
www.crescentbayfinancial.com
 
There is an index summary for your convenience.

The Loan Buyers Group was formed to allow smaller Debt Buyers and Collection Agencies to work together to purchase National files of charged-off debt.  The group also partners with larger Debt Buyers for larger portfolio acquisitions.  For information on how what we do and how to join, visit our new Website at www.loanbuyersgroup.com.   Join us on Linked-In .com/Search Groups/"Loan Buyers Group: National Debt Buyers".
Join Our Mailing List
This email was sent to jill@plan-aire.com by jill@crescentbayfinancial.com |  
Crescent Bay Financial LLC (949) 499-8010 | 668 No. Coast Hwy, Suite 1230 | Laguna Beach | CA | 92651

Web Hosting Companies