| LAGUNA BEACH JANUARY 18, 2010 VOLUME VIII |
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News & Views
Debt Buyers & Sellers Resource
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Editor's Message

Happy New Year to you all!
Last year is still but a blink away, and for most of us the thoughts that came with turning the final page of 2009 and opening the book of 2010, are not the thoughts of any other transition from one day to the next. It's a new decade, and the final breath of the last was one that many are happy to see completed successfully.
What better way to begin the "new" than with traditions, and ours was waking up to the Rose Bowl Parade. It was one of the most glorious in memory, again, - just the right amount of pomp and humility, poignancy and humor. We took the time this year to assess our New Year's Resolutions. For those that care to look, the lessons learned have been many, and as our country struggles through its own introspection and reassessment of its identity, individually, many of us are doing the same. May character prevail at the macro scale, and the micro, and may we focus on the potential, and not the flaws as we write the text of the future. This newsletter brings with it our best wishes for healthy and prosperous 2010. On that note we include one of the Chinese symbols for wealth and prosperity to bring us all luck.
In this edition, we feature an article on "Portfolio Modeling". Gary has been putting his charting genius to good use in refining portfolio analysis communications, which he has ratcheted up to a new level. The Debt Collection Industry is on the Federal radar, and we are entering an eventful period in the evolution of the industry's history. There are a number of important legislative proceedings that will certainly be impacting Buyers and Collectors alike in the coming year and we will be keeping your informed. Among them is the new CFPA bill. This important piece of legislation impacts us in many ways and is being covered in a two part series "Protective or Onerous?". We are also featuring another Michelle Dunn article "On Skip Tracing..."
and have shared "What the Experts Are Predicting for 2010".
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Portfolio Modeling
by Gary Baker
In September, Crescent Bay Financial LLC formed the Loan Buyers Group. The Buyers Group allows for smaller Debt Buyers to work together to purchase larger portfolios of consumer debt. We focus primarily on National credit card files, although we also evaluate judgments, and other types of unsecured consumer loans. Once we identify a viable candidate for purchase, we review the selected portfolio with the Loan Buyer Group Members. Typically we have enough interest from the Group to place a bid for the purchase of the portfolio or if we are not in a bidding environment, and we can purchase the portfolio outright. Each of the Group Members receives detailed and proprietary analysis of the portfolios being considered for purchase by the Group. The Loan Buyers Group has purchased several portfolios in the past few months and in our most recent acquisition, we assembled 25 individual loan buyers, to acquire one very large National portfolio.
Our modeling is unique in that we evaluate each portfolios expected performance based on how current similar files are collecting today. This is not a scoring system. The evaluation methods we utilize are very conservative and compare the performance of a diverse collection of portfolios that are currently being collected, with the portfolio being evaluated. Different Issuers, balances, geographic regions, file age, account types, agency level, prior collection activity and about 3000 other data points are utilized to determine how a given file is expected to collect based on the current performance of similar files. We utilize the raw data output from the analysis and have developed a series of charts and graphs that display all of the portfolios relevant performance information in an easy to read format for our Loan Buyer Group Members. We highlight the net portfolio returns, by month, along with collection costs and anticipated resale value of the file. We compare each portfolio to similar agency age performance characteristics, so we have a several baseline comparisons. Additionally, we test different purchase prices and collection rates and chart the differences in net returns.
We have evaluated over $1.0 billion in face value consisting of almost 400,000 individual credit card accounts from a variety of Issuers. The Loan Buyers Group so far, has purchased $42.9 million in account face value which represents some 9,333 accounts since December 1, 2009 with an expected net return, on average of 117.65% for the total portfolio at 12 months. The total net returns as modeled reach 197.91% at 24 months, and the 36 month net is 258.29% per our model. The net returns are the total collected amount less the purchase price, less the collection cost and include the resale value of the portfolio.
Many variables are evaluated during our due diligence period and the charts below are from our Portfolio Summary Report. This is one of the Loan Buyers Group actual due diligence reports. The file shown is a Draft document that the Group evaluated before the purchase of this file. The final portfolio model is only available to the members who participated in the file and the final projected returns were considerably higher.
First we parepare a summary of the file and the initial Projected New Profit Chart.
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Portfolio Review Summary
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Model Price:
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1.50%
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Issuer:
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Small Balance
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Number of Accounts:
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2,477
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Average Balance:
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$5,452.74
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Principal Balance:
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$13,506,438.67
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Projected Net Profit 12 Mo.
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105.73%
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Agency Level:
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1
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Charge-off Date:
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1/20/2007
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Portfolio Age in Months:
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34.67
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Collection Cost:
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35%
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Date of Model Run:
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11/25/2009
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Model ID Number:
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33
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Low Balance:
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$ 55.66
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High Balance:
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$ 90,796.71
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First Payment Defaults:
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18.05%
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We seek to understand many characteristics of the file. We have developed a number of graphs and charts to provide detailed information on the file based on the stratification run. This file is expected to perform well for the first 12 months and then start collecting well again at 18 months. Each file we review has different performance characteristics.
We review the average open dates; charge off dates and months since last payment. We also know the balances of the portfolio based on both the number of accounts and percentage of the overall portfolio. We look at the distribution of balances and compare the results to similar issuers to determine if a band of account balances is missing or to low for the portfolio being modeled.

State Distribution of the file is important. The Loan Buyers Group only buys National files but the distribution of accounts by State has an impact on the Portfolio value. We also want to determine whether some states are missing. There is an average state distribution for each issuer so we can tell if we are missing files or if the distribution has been altered.
In addition we establish how much information is available at the account level for the portfolio. Do we have the name, address and original account numbers and social security numbers for all the accounts? Are there any cosigners, work phone numbers and what percentage of accounts are potentially PO boxes?
We compare the Proposed Portfolio against several baseline Fresh, 1 Agency 2 Agency and 3 Agency Files for a comparison of expected performance.
We look at the Projected Gross Collection Returns for the file and compare the results against other portfolios. Projected returns are the Gross Collection Receipts expected from the file for different future time frames. These are different from the Net Profit comparisons that we also perform for the file.
We review several pricing and collection cost scenarios, to determine anticipated Net Returns for different acquisition and collection cost combinations.
In addition to the cumulative numbers that are modeled on the chats, we look at expected quarterly returns and monthly cash flows to determine the optimum amount of time to hold the portfolio before we sell the balance of the file. These charts are run on a variety of purchase and collection cost assumptions.
There is detailed evaluation of the data between baseline portfolios. We want to determine how the expected collections compare to several average portfolios.
And finally we chart the cash flows. The chart below is by quarter. Monthly cash flows are also part of the Portfolio Evaluation Model for the Loan Buyers Group Members.

Conclusion
There are 4 basic components that determine how a portfolio will perform. These are summarized as: 1) The Acquisition Price, 2) The Collection Cost, 3) The Recovery Rate, and 4) The Resale Value.
We evaluate a great number of portfolios for the Loan Buyers Group and most will not work for us. Our Group Members have seen many 60% to 100% net return files at the 12 month period and have come to expect that level of performance. We work hard to find these kinds of files, and when we model 82% returns, it is sometimes not enough for many in the Group. (
82% returns in this economy, not enough???) But some of our members have high expectations and even 100% is not enough. With average industry returns in the 30% to 40% range for debt buyers, it is clear that we are doing pretty well, but they give us incentive to work harder. If you are interested in finding out more about the Loan Buyers Group, visit our website or contact me, Gary, by email for a membership package.
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Protective or Onerous? The CFPA (Consumer Financial Protection Agency) by Jill Benshoof
In early December, the House passed what is being called by CNN as "the most sweeping set of changes to the banking regulatory system since the New Deal". Aimed at preventing a variety of abuses and manipulations which ultimately led to the financial market meltdown that caused the recession, the new bill is being hailed by proponents as the first of its kind to focus on the taxpayer rights. Yet, as the bill runs the gauntlet of Congressional debate, and special interest groups weigh in, like the Healthcare bill, it is already morphing into something that few, other than the creators, are happy with. From a "consumer protection" standpoint, the original intent as proposed by the White House has been considerably diluted. While still a work in progress, at this point, one thing is clear, and that is if passed, it will shake up our entire financial system as never before. Old agencies will be transformed or consolidated, new agencies will be formed, and government bureaucracy will be increased. The changes will be far reaching, and the Debt Collection Industry and when all is said and done, will not escape scrutiny. This begins a 2 part series covering this important piece of legislation.
Background
The concept of establishing a new government agency strictly devoted to consumer protection was introduced by the Obama Administration on 6/17/09 as part of a "sweeping overhaul" of the financial regulatory system. The purpose of the overhaul was to identify gaps in the current regulatory system and close them to ultimately maintain the long term stability of the financial system. Towards that end, it was proposed that the Federal Reserve be given new powers to oversee the entire financial system, there never before having been a single agency in the position to administer the whole. The proposal outlined tougher oversight of financial institutions, practices, and products, such as over-the-counter derivatives that have previously functioned under the radar of government agencies. It called for higher standards set for financial institutions to stop abuses in the mortgage industry, and, for the establishment of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, the CFPA, to regulate "products", such as mortgages and credit cards.
Traditionally, consumer protection issues have broadly been under the umbrella of the FTC, yet, for the most part, the arm of the agency has functioned as a reactive entity, responding to problems and complaints, but not mandated to provide leadership or guidance in the way of preventative measures, regulation or oversight. Furthermore, over 50 other financial agencies independently handle consumer issues related to their own jurisdictions, 7 dealing with the issue of consumer credit alone.
The preliminary CFPA proposal was submitted by the Treasury Department on 6/30/09, and championed by Treasury Secretary, Tim Geitner. The proposal had 5 primary objectives. It called for 1) the oversight and stronger regulation of most major financial institutions & products, 2) the supervision and regulation of financial markets, 3) the protection of consumers and investors from abuse, unfairness and deception, 4) the overhaul of systems for the management of financial crisis and 5) the improvement of international regulatory standards and cooperation. The entire insurance business, except for activities related to credit, mortgage and title insurance was exempted. Early opposition surfaced in the July hearings from Ben Bernanke, Sheila Baird and several other financial regulators whose concerns stemmed from a perceived undermining of control over their own agencies.
H.R. 3126
On 7/8/09, Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee introduced the proposed legislation as a bill, H.R. 3126. The bill closely resembled the Obama proposal in word and in spirit. It radically transformed the regulatory authority of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), effectively transferring all its authority to the new CFPA Agency. It established an Office of Financial Literacy, for consumer education. The new Agency would be funded in part from the Federal Reserve budget and through assessments on regulated industries.
Active work on the bill began after the summer recess in September. A series of heated debates and markups followed, while Republicans, complaining about being "frozen out of the process" and about the "artificial time table", formulated their own plans, which for the most part were knocked down. Debates highlighted the broad ideological variances between the 2 parties which ranged from a complete overhaul of the financial system, favored by Progressives, to the Republican approach of addressing the "gaps" by tightening up the existing system through greater transparency, responsibility and accountability. The bill emerged from the Financial Services Committee on October 22nd as a noticeably partisan creation with votes following strict party lines as it entered the House arena. On October 29th it cleared the Energy and Commerce Committee with the partial restoration of some of the original FTC authority, which had been previously stripped away.
Sorting Out the Controversy
The intensity of the controversy ratcheted up several notches before the December vote in the House of Representatives. While one would think that any "consumer protection" bill would have tremendous grass roots appeal because we are, after all, all consumers, in the business and financial communities, it has universally been met with open criticism. As with most bills, the devil is in the details. Many believe that although well intended, it is poorly crafted and fraught with confusion and that there are other simpler ways to solve the problems.
Aside from House Democrats, outspoken proponents are predominantly in the consumer advocacy camps. Jim Guest, president of Consumer's Union believes that "This agency would go a long way toward stopping the deceptive practices that helped spark the economic crisis a year ago," Guest said. "We need an aggressive watchdog in Washington that looks out for the best interests of consumers. This agency would crack down on lenders and banks that abuse their customers, and it would provide information consumers need to make informed financial decisions. The House vote is a big victory for consumers".
Professor Oren Bar-Gill, of NYU's Center for Law, Economics and Organization believes that the creation of the CFPA will correct sloppy regulation and supervision of the banks, and protect consumers from risky financial products. He is the co-author, of a book entitled Making Credit Safer, along with Elizabeth Warren, Harvard Professor and chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel and credited with first advancing the idea of establishing the CFPA. Ms. Warren calls the Credit Market broken, with "tricks and traps and incomprehensible fine print [] preventing customers from making direct comparisons, and stifling innovation". She believes "a single agency will "reduce risk in the system" and "reduce the overall regulatory burden", removing layers of "contradictory, expensive and useless regulation".
Opponents believe that the bill will ultimately be harmful to consumers and to the country's economy by removing free market principles from banks and related businesses. There is a general fear that the giant new bureaucracy with its unchecked regulatory powers, is too ill-defined and would inherently set up conflicts with the numerous other existing Agencies whose jurisdictions overlap. The powers of the new agency would include discretion and rulemaking authority over broad concepts such as "unfairness", and abusive acts, which while logical at the conceptual level are not clearly defined, so inherently set up problems with regulation and enforcement. Among the criticisms is the noted absence of the standard "Magnuson-Moss" provisions of rulemaking that insures that any rules made will hold up in court. In addition, the provision of authority over "aiding and abetting", suggests broad powers over a huge spectrum of support services, such as the Advertising Industry and the Media. The ramifications of this are huge.
Republicans claim that setting up a new agency always seems to be the automatic bureaucratic solution when something goes wrong, and that creating new agencies is the last thing that the country needs, in an already highly complicated financial system. They argue that the focus should instead be on preventing fraudulent practices, streamlining redundancies to making the regulatory process more effective, and above all, on transparency. Most conservatives broadly recognize that the "deregulation" spirit of the 1980s created the environment wherein business was conducted without any accountability, wherein the lack of disclosure requirements and reporting standards led to abuses. They feel that by setting up more stringent guidelines in these areas the problems should disappear. Furthermore, it is argued, that the cost of this new layer of bureaucracy would add immeasurably to an already over burdened economy. When agencies such as the CPSC (Consumer Products Safety Commission) already exist, why not just broaden their authority?
Due to the fact that this legislation would have such far reaching consequences, there has been a great deal of interest and widespread analysis and discussion in the legal community. An analysis of the financial system reform issue and the CFPA put forth on October 27th in a publication by the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Reform points out that the consumer protection issue has long been a weak link in the American financial system as compared to "other advanced economies", due to the fact that more than 100 different Agencies regulate and supervise the financial markets, with consumer oversight divided among them (i.e., the Federal Reserve, the FTC, the SEC, NCUA, OCC, OTS, FDIC, DOJ", not to mention State regulators. While some see this patchwork as a strength, the Forum stated that this "fragmentation" has gaps in oversight over some sectors and allows for abuses. It concluded that the best solution was a consolidation of these entities into 2 or 3, and went on to lay out options as to how to accomplish this. It criticizes the framework of the CFPA as being structured to oversee some consumer protection areas, but noticeably lacking protection in the investor arena, which would remain under the control of the SEC and the CFTC.
The Forum also raised the concern that as currently defined, the CFPA is primarily a "banking consumer protection agency", which contradicts the original intent to consolidate consumer protection into one agency. They see this as problematic, due to the fact that historically agencies have favored bank "safety and soundness" over consumer protection. Because the CFPA focuses on bank products, there is an inherent conflict between banking regulators and the CFPA.
A whitepaper issued in September by the NCLC (National Consumer Law Center) claims that the interference of Federal banking agencies in consumer protection laws, were a "major factor in the mortgage crisis and other credit abuses"
and articulates the importance of State role in consumer protection. The PSN (Progressive States Network), which monitors government policy and works with State legislators to promote the Progressive Agenda, has mobilized to protect local consumer protection laws and to prevent federal preemption.
The latest version of the bill, (now packaged with several other bills as H.R. 4173), passed on 12/11/09, and is called the "Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009".
By all accounts it appears that the bill has emerged from the House, still as a big, bank oriented consumer protection bill, providing more oversight, but stronger capital cushions to the largest banks and Wall Street Firms. Clearly absent is any legislation dealing with the Too Big To Fail issue. Beyond banking, as the name implies, the bill deals with a number of Wall Street issues including shareholder approval of corporate compensation and legislation for the over the counter Derivative Markets and Capital Markets. Among the complexities of the bill, which we will only highlight here, is the provision for a Federal Insurance Office to add stability by setting domestic insurance policy and by overseeing international insurance services and it establishes a Government Accounting Office to audit the Federal Reserve.
The issue of auditing the Fed is extremely contentious. While most don't deny that backroom dealings by the Fed during the peak of the economic crisis and its poor accounting for expenditures of taxpayer TARP dollars during subsequent Congressional hearings have eroded public trust, there is deep concern that making the Federal Reserve accountable to a higher authority will inevitably politicize the Agency. CNN reports the Fed as saying that this will indisputably "interfere with the central bank's ability to carry out independent monetary policy".
Other changes to the original CFPA bill include exemptions for Lawyers, CPAs, Real Estate Brokers and Agents, providers of IRAs, 401K and Pension Plans, and for the auto industry, despite the fact that they represent a large proportion of consumer loans, the rationale being that the auto industry had little to do the with the economic crisis. All of these exemptions serve to water down the consumer protection thrust of the original proposal. At this point even moderate Democrats are concerned that the CFPA will hurt small businesses. It is being criticized for limiting the power over smaller institutions" and deceptively exempting 98% of the nations banks and credit unions from protection rules.
In its current form, authority of the CFPA now rests entirely with the director, and not with an entity acting under the direction and approval of the board, which has many people concerned. With consumers a large but extremely nebulous group with their voice not much above a whisper to the conscience where behind closed doors decisions are made, it is difficult to believe that the more organized banking institutions won't be lobbying hard for a "banking friendly" appointee. The apparent front runner for the position is Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor credited with first coming up with the idea of the agency. There are to be 2 oversight panels serving in an advisory capacity only.
The Senate now has the task of reconciling this bill with its own earlier version drafted by Senator Christopher Dodd. The CFPA is just one component of the Senate version which calls for the addition of several new agencies and the complete redistribution of Federal Reserve and FDIC authority. There will no doubt be further modifications as the bill winds through the legislative process, but most agree that some form of the bill that includes the CFPA is likely to pass.
Are Consumers getting the shaft? In the next edition we will provide an update on the Senate progress relative to consumer protection and discuss what this means to the Debt Collection Industry.
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DID YOU KNOW?
1. Money isn't made out of paper, it is made out of cotton.
2. There are 118 ridges around the edge of a dime.
3. 3 quarters, 4 dimes and 4 pennies is the largest amount of coins you can have without being able to make change for a dollar.
4. The Federal Reserve stopped printing $500, $1,000, $5,000 and $10,000 denominations (single bills) in 1946.
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Online Skip Tracing or Locating Debtors That Owe You Money by Michelle Dunn
Many collectors use social networks to find debtors, many debtors have public profile pages on social sites and a collector can find a mailing address, phone number, cell phone number, place of employment and other contact information by searching those sites.
Social media tools are used every day by collectors as skip tracing tools more than as a way to collect a debt from someone. Social networking sites such as Twitter, Facebook, or LinkedIn may help someone to locate a debtor; however, using any one of those websites' to announce any type of pending or ongoing collection activity would violate the FDCPA in a multitude of ways. Utilizing social networking sites to gather information and investigate a person's history requires a lot of work, and even when it is successful, it often will give you only a single chance at getting a payment.
There are many databases out there where you can join and use their services to locate debtors, and other databases provide information on bankruptcy filings or if a debtor might be deceased.
Some collectors have reported finding debtors location information by finding information in a news story or by Googling a name and checking out social networking pages. You could also set up "Google Alerts" for a specific name if you are having trouble finding that person, and google will email you an alert each time that name is mentioned somewhere on the web.
According to the February 2009 workshop report by the Federal Trade Commission, database technology has changed the techniques that creditors and debt collectors use to find consumers. As recently as twenty years ago, collectors trying to locate a consumer were limited to calling references, trying to find neighbors through reverse-look-up directories, or visiting consumers in person. Today, you can obtain location information by accessing huge electronic databases that collect consumer information such as telephone numbers, social security numbers, real estate records, court records, marriage records, addressed, names of relatives and others living at the same address. Free telephone directories are also available on the internet, providing information nationwide.
Some databases also provide information on if a debtor has filed or been discharged from bankruptcy proceedings or if they are deceased.
In these evolving times of technology and social networking, it is important for your business to have specific social networking policies and procedures if you are going to utilize them in your business. These policies need to be written down, shared with everyone at your business and enforced. In order for your business to successfully utilize social networking sites and to permit social media, you must involve a risk-based decision-making process that requires strong business justifications that identify mission requirements and drive toward an expected outcome, such as locating a debtor or assets in order to pursue collections of a debt. Once you create these procedures, realize that they will need to be changed and looked at frequently as technology and laws change.
The above article was excerpted from Michelle's new e-book Online Collection Techniques, Do's & Dont's.
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MICHELLE DUNN BIO
Called the Nations authority on collecting money, Michelle Dunn is an award winning author and columnist. She is the founder and CEO of the American Credit & Collections Association, one of the Top 5 women in Collections, and one of the Top 50 most influential collection professionals in her industry. Michelle has been quoted and featured in The Wall Street Journal, Smart Money Magazine, CNN & other National publications.
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What the Experts Are Predicting for 2010
by Jill Benshoof
Most experts agree that the 2009 Recession officially ended in June, yet despite the Stock Market rally, the effects of the recession undeniably dominated the year, and as all indications are that the recovery is apt to be a slow process over the next couple of years, they will no doubt be felt throughout 2010. Curious about how the predictions for this year stack up, we surveyed a large number of forecasts, from a variety of sources and thought we'd summarize the dominant thinking and share our take on what that might mean for the Debt Collection Industry.
The dynamics of recovery are complex and while the picture of exactly what form it will take comes into focus, most experts agree that any sustainable recovery will have to be lead by equally sustainable growth and that is not yet on the horizon. It appears at this point that the incremental economic growth that we saw in the 2nd half of last year that implied the potential for a "V' shaped recovery, was due to temporary factors only. According to Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. Economist, the economic stimulus package was the primary catalyst, but production increases that followed the drastic stock liquidations in late 2008 and early 2009 also helped.
Another Goldman Sachs economist, Andrew Tilton, sees overcapacity in 3 areas, Housing, Labor and Industrial, as offsetting the more typical inflationary conclusion to a recession. The Sachs group notes that despite fears that the recent expansionary fiscal policies might trigger inflation, "disinflation" is more likely with the real risk being deflation. They see the probability of more fiscal stimulus, with a rate hike imminent. Sean Hyman, financial speaker and regular contributor to several financial magazines, agrees. Because we are currently in a state of "stagflation", the only way to resolve it is for the government to do 2 opposing things at once: stimulate the economy to attack sluggish growth, while fighting inflation with rate hikes. If they don't do both, either inflation will get out of control, or rate hikes will crush the economy, he said.
With access to the bond market or the commercial paper markets, recovery should be seen first in the large business arena. This means that the unemployment rate may continue to be a problem, since small businesses have traditionally generated the lion's share of new jobs. This may even result in wage cuts, which would hamper the recovery process further.
Curious Investor blogger, Daniel Hung, affirms that the key to a sustainable recovery is from real production through manufacturing, spurring employment, new investment and financing, which will feed corporate services and get the ball rolling. (B) Yet, it is clear that in a predominantly service based economy this is hard to do. He calls this reliance on financial services as an engine of growth, the tail-wagging-the-dog approach.
The Global Perspective
I was listening to the interview of a notable geopolitical analyst by the name of George Friedman the other day, and heard some fairly surprising predictions. Mr. Friedman is head of and has just come out with his book called "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century", which predicts that the past history of our country to date, has only been a prelude to what is coming. He believes that the 21st Century will be golden era of the United States - hardly the conclusion that I had reached. (D) Living in the trenches of day to day doomsday reports about the economy and the dramatic changes in the political landscape, it was a remarkably refreshing to be shaken out of my myopic mindset and to step back and hear a larger perspective. It actually left me quite optimistic. Mr. Friedman has considerable credentials as a forecaster, heading up Stratfor Global Intelligence, a company which does integrative economic, political, military modeling and forecasting. My new optimism made me think about this country in a new light, in particular to look at "The Great Recession" as a passing blip on the radar of our future.
- The U.S. Recession has ended and recovery is unsteady, but appears to have put down sufficient roots to hold.
- Global recovery is tentative, with regional aftereffects, including in China, where an export led economy faces tepid export demand, and in Europe where a banking crisis looms on the horizon.
- Escalating tension in the Middle East, and possible military conflict (from Israel forcing Iran's hand on the nuclear issue) could set back the global recovery through rising oil prices, particularly if it enters the theater of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Most economic indicators are positive, but with banks still skittish about lending, the recovery will continue to be weak.
- Europe faces 2 economic crises. 1) banks are far worse off than their American counterparts and 2) several European countries have severe debt problems that will require painful austerity measures or massive bailouts from the European Union, either of which may trigger significant social unrest.
- 95% of China's growth in 2009 was in investment spending, much of which was in questionable loans, which will haunt China in the future. It may have a difficult time avoiding a downturn in 2010. In addition, the government launched numerous infrastructure projects, and then had to subsidize industries which had operated on narrow profit margins when exports declined, to avoid mass unrest.
- Globally the mismatch between export oriented economies and export demand will produce an overproduction of goods that will insure that inflation remains tame.
It's Not All Doom and Gloom
The global perspective forces one to step back and look at things through a different lens, and in doing so it is impossible not to note that the most important factor in entering 2010, is that the worst of "The Great Recession" is behind us. In the Debt Collection Industry there is much to be grateful for. Firstly, the crisis has challenged us in ways we could not have imagined, and we have met those challenges with dignity and perseverance, rising to the challenge with creative thinking and coming up with new approaches and innovative solutions.
In looking for ways to get an edge, Debt collectors and Debt Buyers are turning to integrated technology, which for collectors is making them more efficient, and for Buyers is taking some of the guess work out of the portfolio purchase process. We are all running tighter ships.
Several experts speculate that in the coming year the recession will continue to shake out those companies that are less competitive, ultimately making the industry more efficient and stronger. While this is bad news for the little guy, the good news is that most of these firms, for the most part will just be absorbed by larger firms, so theoretically jobs should not be lost. In fact, ultimately as larger and more agile firms gear up for the increased volume of placements, there should be a net increase in jobs in the industry. One of the fears is that the credit crunch which will significantly reduce the volume of placements down the road, forcing even more consolidation, but it is important to recognize that the impact of that remains to be seen. Placements are expected to slow after the first quarter of 2010, but it may not be as serious as some have indicated. In the latest Credit Card Indices report, Moody's Investors Service posts a rising credit card delinquency rate and an increase in bank charge-offs. (E) If banks begin to ease credit over the next year or so, perhaps the current glut of debt will help us all weather the storm.
In an article called "Industry Outlook: Collections And The Economy", Darren Waggoner, says that most companies are "rightsizing and making their operations more efficient." An array of better software platforms are improving collections and collection management, while new scoring techniques aid in profiling debtors and assist collectors in determining appropriate strategies for settling accounts. Many firms are even using psychologists and behaviorists for modeling purposes and in the education and training of their collectors to more effectively deal with their clients.
The bigger issue over the next year is whether "impairment charges" will continue to hamper profits, the price of older debt purchased often being greater than what firms have been able to collect. This is why the portfolio modeling before purchase is so important and why, through the Loan Buyers Group, Crescent Bay Financial takes such great pains to do so to insure that the purchase price does not exceed the potential for profit.
In general, from the debtors perspective, they have been met with greater understanding by collectors than ever before and a collaborative spirit has prevailed. The great majority of debtors right now are not dead beats, but are people who have simply had the misfortune of being caught in the crosshairs of the crisis, and the universal comprehension that we are all dependent on each other for survival has created an overtone in communications of dignity and respect. Because the mix of debtors is different than in past years, including a greater percentage of people with higher credit scores people who value their credit and will likely be proactive in settling their debts as soon as they can to repair any damage and position themselves for recovery, as the recovery process proceeds, greater collectability may result. It is also probable that the higher underwriting standards by banks over the past 18 months, should result in improved rates of return.
While the unemployment rate continues to remain high and the December figures were disappointing due to unexpectedly high job losses reported by employers, the fact is, that new filings by employees are on the down trend and that is also a positive sign.
The greatest unknown quantity right now is how the new laws will affect the industry. Will the likelihood of greater federal regulation increase the cost of doing business? Stay tuned.
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Business Funding Sources
Here are some previouisly published resources to have at your fingertips.
Private Placement Memorandum (Published in Volume II)
Ken Hollowell has 28 years of experience in creating private Placement Memorandums or PPM's, which is one of the only legal ways to raise money from private investors. Ken brings more than just a document to the table. He helps bring the PPM to the investment community and he will coach you through the entire fund raising process. Contact Ken at (407) 363-3545, or email him at www.kenhollowell@profranconsultants.com
Self Directed Retirement Accounts (Published in Volume III)
15 years ago BeneTrends was the first company to introduce the 401(k) self-reliant business funding program. With this IRS approved plan in place, you will have the ability to use your own retirement account start a business or grow your existing business with out incurring taxes, penalties or loan payments. (We have confirmed that your debt buying business is eligible) Contact BeneTrends.
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The Loan Buyers Group was formed to allow smaller Debt Buyers and Collection Agencies to work together to purchase National files of charged-off debt. The group also partners with larger Debt Buyers for larger portfolio acquisitions. For information on how what we do and how to join, visit our new Website at www.loanbuyersgroup.com. Join us on Linked-In .com/Search Groups/"Loan Buyers Group: National Debt Buyers".
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